美联储主席耶伦在货币政策会议后新闻发布会上的讲话

Good afternoon. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at ¼ to ½ percent. Our decision to keep this accommodative policy stance reflects both our assessment of the economic outlook and the risks associated with that outlook. The Committee's baseline expectations for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation have not changed much since December: With appropriate monetary policy, we continue to expect moderate economic growth, further labor market improvement, and a return of inflation to our 2 percent objective in two to three years. However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks. Against this backdrop, the Committee judged it prudent to maintain the current policy stance at today's meeting. I will come back to our policy decision momentarily, but first, let me review recent economic developments and the outlook.

Thelabormarketcontinuestostrengthen.Overthemostrecentthreemonths,jobgainsaveragednearly230,000permonth,similartothepaceexperiencedoverthepastyear.Theunemploymentratewas4.9percentinthefirsttwomonthsoftheyear,aboutinlinewiththemedianofFOMCparticipants'estimatesofitslonger-runnormallevel.Abroadermeasureofunemploymentthatincludesindividualswhowantandareavailabletoworkbuthavenotactivelysearchedrecentlyandpeoplewhoareworkingparttimebutwouldratherworkfull-timehascontinuedtoimprove.Ofnote,thelaborforceparticipationratehasturnedupnoticeablysincethefall,withmorepeopleworkingoractivelylookingforworkastheprospectsforfindingjobshaveimproved.Butthereisstillroomforimprovement:Involuntarypart-timeemploymentremainssomewhatelevated,andwagegrowthhasyettoshowasustainedpickup.

Theimprovementinemploymentconditionssofarthisyearhasoccurredaseconomicgrowthappearstohavepickedupfromthemodestpaceseeninthefourthquarteroflastyear.Householdspendingisexpandingatamoderaterate,supportedbycontinuedjobgainsandincreasesininflation-adjustedincomes.Incontrast,businessinvestmenthasbeenweak,inpartreflectingfurtherreductionsinoildrillingasaresultoflowoilprices.Netexportsalsoremainsoftasaconsequenceofsubduedforeigngrowthandtheearlierappreciationofthedollar.Lookingahead,theCommitteeexpectsthat,withgradualadjustmentsinthestanceofmonetarypolicy,economicactivitywillcontinuetoexpandatamoderatepaceandlabormarketindicatorswillcontinuetostrengthen.

Ongoingeconomicgrowthandadditionalstrengtheninginlabormarketconditionsareimportantfactorsunderpinningtheinflationoutlook.Overallconsumerpriceinflation–asmeasuredbythepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures–steppedupto1¼percentoverthe12monthsendinginJanuary,asthesharpdeclineinenergypricesaroundtheendof2014droppedoutoftheyear-over-yearfigures.Coreinflation,whichexcludesenergyandfoodprices,hasalsopickedup,althoughitremainstobeseenifthisfirmingwillbesustained.Inparticular,theearlierdeclinesinenergypricesandappreciationofthedollarcouldwellcontinuetoweighonoverallconsumerprices.Butoncethesetransitoryinfluencesfadeandasthelabormarketstrengthensfurther,theCommitteeexpectsinflationtoriseto2percentoverthenexttwotothreeyears.

TheCommittee'sinflationoutlookrestsimportantlyonitsjudgmentthatlonger-runinflationexpectationsremainreasonablywellanchored.However,thestabilityoflonger-runinflationexpectationscannotbetakenforgranted.Survey-basedmeasuresoflonger-runinflationexpectationsarelittlechanged,onbalance,inrecentmonths,althoughsomeremainnearhistoricallylowlevels.Market-basedmeasuresofinflationcompensationalsoremainlow.Movementsintheseindicatorsreflectmanyfactorsandthereforemaynotprovideanaccuratereadingonchangesintheinflationexpectationsthataremostrelevantforwageandpricesetting.Nonetheless,ourstatementcontinuestoemphasizethat,inconsideringfuturepolicydecisions,wewillcarefullymonitoractualandexpectedprogresstowardourinflationgoal.

ThisgeneralassessmentoftheoutlookisreflectedintheindividualeconomicprojectionssubmittedforthismeetingbyFOMCparticipants.Asalways,eachparticipant'sprojectionsareconditionedonhisorown–hisorherownviewofappropriatemonetarypolicy,which,inturn,dependsoneachperson'sassessmentofthemultitudeoffactorsthatshapetheoutlook.Participants'projectionsforgrowthofinflation-adjustedgrossdomesticproductorGDParejustatouchlowerthantheprojectionsmadeinconjunctionwiththeDecemberFOMCmeeting.Themediangrowthprojectionedgesdownfrom2.2percentthisyearto2percentin2018,inlinewithitsestimatedlonger-runrate.Themedianprojectionfortheunemploymentratefallsfrom4.7attheendofthisyearto4.5percentattheendof2018,somewhatbelowthemedianassessmentofthelonger-runnormalunemploymentrate.ThemedianpathoftheunemploymentrateisalittlelowerthaninDecember,inpartreflectingaslightlylowermedianestimateofthelonger-runnormalunemploymentrate.Finally,withthetransitoryfactorsholdingdowninflationexpectedtoabateandlabormarketconditionsanticipatedtostrengthenfurther,themedianinflationprojectionrisesfrom1.2percentthisyearto1.9percentnextyearand2percentin2018.ThemedianinflationprojectionforthisyearisalittlelowerthaninDecember,butthereafterthemedianprojectionsareunchanged.

Sincetheturnoftheyear,concernsaboutglobaleconomicprospectshaveledtoincreasedfinancialmarketvolatilityandsomewhattighterfinancialconditionsintheUnitedStates,althoughfinancialconditionshaveimprovednotablymorerecently.Inaddition,economicgrowthabroadappearstoberunningatasomewhatsofterpacethanpreviouslyexpected.Theseunanticipateddevelopments,however,havenotresultedinmaterialchangestotheCommittee'sbaselineoutlook.Onereasonforthisisthatmarketexpectationsforthepathofpolicyinterestrateshavemoveddown,andtheaccompanyingdeclineinlonger-terminterestratesshouldhelpcushionanypossibleadverseeffectsondomesticeconomicactivity.Indeed,whilestockpriceshavefallenslightlysincetheDecembermeetingandspreadsofinvestment-gradecorporatebondyieldsoverthoseoncomparable-maturityTreasurysecuritieshaverisen,mortgageratesandcorporateborrowingcostshavemovedlower.Ofcourse,theCommitteewillcontinuetomonitorthesedevelopmentscloselyandwilladjustthestanceofmonetarypolicyasneededtofosterourgoalsofmaximumemploymentand2percentinflation.

Returningtomonetarypolicy,asInotedearlier,theCommitteedecidedtomaintainitstargetrangeforthefederalfundsrate.ThisdecisionpartlyreflectstheimplicationsfortheU.S.economyoftheglobaleconomicandfinancialdevelopmentsIjustmentioned.Inaddition,proceedingcautiouslyinremovingpolicyaccommodationatthistimewillallowustoverifythatthelabormarketiscontinuingtostrengthendespitetherisksfromabroad.Suchcautionisappropriategiventhatshort-terminterestratesarestillnearzero,whichmeansthatmonetarypolicyhasgreaterscopetorespondtoupsidethantodownsidechangesintheoutlook.

Asweindicatedinourstatement, "theCommitteeexpectsthateconomicconditionswillevolveinamannerthatwillwarrantonlygradualincreasesinthefederalfundsrate;thefederalfundsrateislikelytoremain,forsometime,belowlevelsthatareexpectedtoprevailinthelongerrun."Thisexpectationisconsistentwiththeviewthattheneutralnominalfederalfundsrate–definedasthevalueofthefederalfundsratethatwouldbeneitherexpansionarynorcontractionaryiftheeconomywasoperatingnearpotential–iscurrentlylowbyhistoricalstandardsandislikelytoriseonlygraduallyovertime.Thelowleveloftheneutralfederalfundsratemaybepartiallyattributabletoarangeofpersistenteconomicheadwindsthatweighonaggregatedemand,includingdevelopmentsabroad,asubduedpaceofhouseholdformation,andmeagerproductivitygrowth.Thereisconsiderableuncertaintyregardingtheevolutionoftheneutralfundsrateovertime.However,iftheseheadwindsabate,asweexpect,theneutralfederalfundsrateshouldgraduallymovehigheraswell.

Thisviewisimplicitlyreflectedinparticipants'projectionsofappropriatemonetarypolicy.Themedianprojectionforthefederalfundsraterisesonlygraduallyto0.9percentlatethisyearand1.9percentnextyear.Asthefactorsrestrainingeconomicgrowthareprojectedtofadefurtherovertime,themedianraterisesto3percentbytheendof2018,closetoitslonger-runnormallevel.ComparedwiththeprojectionsmadeinDecember,themedianpathisabout½percentagepointlowerthisyearandnext;themedianlonger-runnormalfederalfundsratehasbeenreviseddownaswell.Inotherwords,mostCommitteeparticipantsnowexpectthatachievingeconomicoutcomessimilartothoseanticipatedinDecemberwilllikelyrequireasomewhatlowerpathforpolicyinterestratesthanforeseenatthattime.

Iwouldliketounderscore,however,thattheparticipants'projectionsforthefederalfundsrate,includingthemedianpath,arenota"plan"forfuturepolicy.Policyisnotonapresetcourse.Theseforecastsrepresentparticipants'individualassessmentsofwhatappropriatepolicywouldbegiveneachperson'sowncurrentprojectionsofthemostlikelyoutcomesforeconomicgrowth,employment,inflation,andotherfactors.However,considerableuncertaintyattachestoeachparticipant'sforecastsofeconomicoutcomes.Hence,theirassessmentsofappropriatepolicyarealsouncertainandwillchangeinresponsetoadjustmentstotheeconomicoutlookandassociatedrisks,aswasthecasebetweenDecemberandnow.

Also,itisimportanttonotethattheCommitteemakesitsdecisionsonameeting-by-meetingbasisanddoesnotandneednotdecideonalikelyfuturepathforthefederalfundsrate.Indeed,thefuturepathofpolicyisnecessarilyuncertainbecausetheeconomywillsurelyevolveinunexpectedways.Aswenoteinourstatement, "theactualpathofthefederalfundsratewilldependontheeconomicoutlookasinformedbyincomingdata."

Finally,theCommitteewillcontinueitspolicyofreinvestingproceedsfrommaturingTreasurysecuritiesandprincipalpaymentsfromagencydebtandmortgage-backedsecurities.Ashighlightedinourpolicystatement,weanticipatecontinuingthispolicy"untilnormalizationofthelevelofthefederalfundsrateiswellunderway."Maintainingoursizableholdingsoflonger-termsecuritiesshouldhelpmaintainaccommodativefinancialconditionsandshouldreducetheriskthatwemighthavetolowerthefederalfundsratetozerointheeventofafuturelargeadverseshock.

Thankyou.

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