The once-a-year meeting of China’s national legislature kicks off Wednesday with all eyes on China’s growth-target projections and military-spending plans.
The gathering of the National People’s Congress at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People usually doesn’t generate much drama by itself. As the congress put it in a guide for reporters, “no new laws or major law amendments are expected to be put before the legislators this year, and there will be no outstanding personnel changes for voting.”
Still, the congress — which goes by the English shorthand NPC — provides China’s top leaders with a platform to sketch out their economic and policy goals for the year. Some of them appear at rare – if carefully managed – press conferences. Enterprising reporters might even catch key officials as they come and go from meetings or duck out for bathroom breaks.
Some major points of interest will be:
China’s economic growth target for 2014: Last year, China held fast to a growth target of “about 7.5%,” then just eked past it with 7.7% growth for 2013. Most economists believe Beijing will stick to the 7.5% rate but that it will become harder meet that target as the country’s economy matures.
China’s military spending: Last year China increased its defense budget by 10.7% amid rising regional tensions with Japan and with Southeast Asian national over their overlapping South China Sea claims. This year tensions have heightened even further after Japan’s prime minister visited a controversial shrine. Another ramp up would be further signs of China’s desire to flex its muscles regionally.
Financial reform: Any hints that China will ease capital controls, liberalize interest rates or make its currency more freely convertible. Experts don’t expect broad moves from the NPC.
Social services: China may ramp up spending to address growing public demands for health care, better education, bigger pensions and other services.
Corruption: Chinese leaders are in the midst of a broad-ranging campaign against graft and waste. Austerity for officials is likely to be a message reinforced repeatedly. In the past, Chinese have combed online news photos of delegates pointing out their expensive clothes and accessories. This year they’ve been instructed to eschew fancy banquets and tchotchkes.
National security: Don’t expect it to be on the formal agenda, but leaders might let something slip following the deadly weekend knife attack in Kunming.
中国人民政治协商会议第十二届全国委员会第二次会议3月3日在北京人民大会堂召开。一年一度的国家立法机关会议3月5日拉开序幕。所有人都密切关注着对于中国经济增长的预测和军费支出计划。
在北京人民大会堂进行的人民代表大会本身不会有任何的戏剧性。正如记者指南所说：“今年没有新的法律或者法律修正案需要代表修订，也没有需要投票决定的重大人事变动。”
然而，全国人民代表大会--用英语速记法可以简写为NPC--为中国的高层领导人提供了一个可以概述本年度经济和政策的平台。如果仔细安排，在一些罕见的情况下，一些高层领导也会出现在新闻发布会上。在会议过程中，一些重要官员进进出出或者去上厕所，这时，一些有魄力的记者甚至能碰到他们。
一些重要的看点将会是：
2014年中国的经济增长目标：去年，中国坚持“7.5%左右”的经济发展目标。2013年经济增长勉强维持在7.7%的水平。大多数的经济学家相信，今年北京仍然会坚持7.5%的增长率，然而，随着中国经济走向成熟，这个目标将会更加难以实现。
中国的军费开支：去年，中国与日本地区紧张局势不断上升，与东南亚国家关于南海重叠区域领土争端愈演愈烈，国防预算增加了10.7%。今年，在日本首相参拜靖国神社之后，地区局势更加紧张。中国产能的提升也是其想要在亚洲大展拳脚的重要标志。
金融改革：一些迹象暗示，中国将要放松资本管制，放开利率或者提高货币的自由兑换。专家指出，不要指望人代会会做出大刀阔斧的改革。
社会服务：中国可能会加大支出来满足公众对于卫生保健，优质教育，丰厚养老金以及其他社会服务的需求。
腐败：中国领导人正在开展大范围的打击贪污和浪费的活动。官员的朴素作风很可能是不断强调的品质。过去，中国人经常会搜索新闻和图片指出官员昂贵的服装以及饰品。今年这些官员被要求避开昂贵的宴请和这些小玩意儿。
国家安全：不要期待这会在正式议程上讨论，然而在上周昆明发生暴力袭击之后，领导人可能会采取一些措施。
