导读:一直以来，美国总统上任都会得到世界的关注。各国也会逐渐出招试探其底线。
(CNN) — Major geopolitical crises have a way of greeting US presidents soon after taking office. Nazi Germany’s withdrawal from the League of Nations in 1933, the Soviet-led construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961, the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 -- all were among the most daunting tests of US foreign policy in the past century, and all came less than a year into the tenures of new US administrations.
CNN电 在美国总统上台后不久，重大的地缘政治危机就会以一种方式向他们打招呼。纳粹德国于1933年退出国际联盟，苏联领导的柏林墙于1961年开建，东京湾事件发生于1964年——所有这些都是在过去一个世纪里对美国外交政策最令人怯步的测试，它们都发生在新一届美国政府上台一年之内。
If past is precedent, Beijing will also soon look to stress-test the new White House. How President Trump responds could well determine whether he stays in the driver’s seat of his own legacy.
如果过去是先例，那么北京也会在不久寻求对新一届白宫进行压力测试。特朗普总统如何回应将会很好地决定他能否在自己的位置上坐稳。
South China Sea: What’s at stake
南海：剑拔弩张
The trouble began when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested during his confirmation hearing that the United States would block China from accessing islands it has built in the South China Sea, islands Beijing has outfitted with weapons systems and military-grade airstrips.
当国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森在他的确认听证会上建议美国阻止中国登陆其在南海建造的岛屿时麻烦就滋生了。北京已经在这些岛屿上部署了武器系统和军事级别的飞机跑道。
Beijing so far has shown marked restraint, at least in its official statements. The Chinese Foreign Ministry downplayed Tillerson’s initial comments and refused to speculate on how it would react to a "hypothetical" situation. Its message for domestic audiences, though, was less conciliatory.
目前，北京已经表现出了极大的克制，至少在其官方声明上是这样的。中国外交部低调处理了蒂勒森最初的言论，同时拒绝推测其会如何回应一种“假设的”情况。然而，其向国内民众传递的信息却不那么缓和。
"Unless Washington plans to wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea," the nationalist-leaning Global Times warned, "any other approaches to prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish."
“除非华盛顿计划在南海发动一场大规模的战争，”具有国家主义倾向的《环球时报》警告道，“任何阻止中国登陆这些岛屿的方法都是愚蠢的。”
For a country whose largest challenge is arguably in managing the expectations of its own people, such hawkish messages may be the more reliable sign.
对于一个最大挑战无疑是处理好人民期望的国家而言，此类强硬信息可能是更加可靠的信号。
Such escalations are likely to come in two varieties. Most obviously, Beijing could respond militarily.
此类升级可能会产生两种结果。最明显的是，北京可能会军事回应。
China’s greatest military strategist, Sun Tzu, once said, "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." President Trump would do well to heed this advice, because right now he doesn’t appear to know either.
中国最伟大的军事战略家孙子曾经说过：“知己知彼，百战不殆。”特朗普总统需要格外留心这一建议，因为现在他看起来什么都不知道。
