美国经济能否跟上债务增长步伐

Here’s a view of America’s economic future that may amaze you; it certainly floored me. Over the next decade, America’s credit standing is likely to remain top-of-the-line—despite a wave of debt and deficits dwarfing almost anything experienced by a major industrialized nation.

下面所提到的这个有关美国未来经济的观点可能会让你感到震惊，我也不例外。在未来10年中，尽管一大波债务和赤字会让一个主流工业化国家的几乎所有问题感到相形见绌，但美国的信用状况依旧有可能在全球名列前茅。

The reason: The U.S. boasts two unique advantages so potent that they’re likely to blunt the looming, severe deterioration in our fiscal outlook. Those advantages are tremendous economic strength, and the dollar’s power as magnet for global capital.

原因何在？美国拥有两大独特的优势，而这两大异常强大的优势很有可能会帮助解决美国日渐显现的财政严重恶化问题。这两大优势分别是巨大的经济优势，以及美元对于全球资本的吸引力。

That’s the thesis of a new report from Moody’s Investors Service, entitled “Preeminent Financial, Economic Position Offsets Weakening Government Finances.” “The U.S. stands out in the global context [for] an unusually high ability to carry a large government debt burden,” the study states. It outlines an extraordinary scenario in which America will depend more than ever before on its matchless muscle to counteract the pressures from a severely deteriorating balance sheet.

这是穆迪投资者服务的新报告《重要的金融、经济地位将抵消日渐匮乏的政府财政》（Preeminent Financial, Economic Position Offsets Weakening Government Finances）的主题。该报告指出，“美国拥有不同寻常的能力，能够背负大量的政府债务负担，这在全球范围内是不多见的。”该报告勾勒出了一个不同寻常的未来，其中，美国将比以往更多地依靠其无可比拟的强大实力，来应对严重恶化的资产负债所带来的压力。

Moody’s issued the report to update its forecasts in light of the recently enacted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a measure that will severely curtail revenues, and swell deficits, in the years to come. The study appeared just before a recent deal in which Congress passed a $150 billion increase in discretionary spending for 2018, so it didn’t incorporate all of the appropriation’s impact in its projections.

穆迪曾就近期通过的《税收削减与就业法案》发布了预测，而这一报告是对该预测的补充。该法案将导致未来几年内财政收入的大幅减少以及赤字的膨胀。就在该报告发布后不久，美国国会通过了2018年上调自主性支出金额1500亿美元的动议，因此，该报告未能够在预测中囊括这一拨款所带来的各种影响。

“We had already adjusted defense spending as a share of GDP upwards to historic levels,” says lead author Sarah Carlson, a Moody’s SVP, who adds that Moody’s hasn’t yet run the numbers on the non-defense cuts. “Clearly, these new appropriations will put upward pressure on the expenditure line.”

报告首要作者、穆迪高级副总裁萨拉.卡尔森说：“我们已经调高了国防预算占GDP的比重，而且创下了历史新高”。萨拉还表示，穆迪并没有计算非防御部分的削减。“很明显，这些新增的拨款将增加支出预算的压力。”

Today, Moody’s awards the U.S. its highest rating for sovereign bonds, Aaa. Were the U.S. to suffer a downgrade, all borrowers, foreign nations, banks and individuals, would demand much higher rates. That menace is a favorite bogeyman for deficit hawks in Congress. And a spike in rates caused by worries over U.S. credit, on top of the rise in yields already in the cards, could ignite a crisis.

如今，穆迪授予了美国主权债务最高评级Aaa级。如果美国评级遭到下调，所有的出借方、其他国家、银行和个人，都将要求得到更高的收益率。这一威胁对于国会的赤字鹰派来说是一个有利的武器。然而，对美国信用评级的担忧而导致的利率上涨（外加收益率的上涨已成定局）可能会引发危机。

But that’s not an outcome Moody’s foresees as most likely. “We expect the U.S.’s broad economic strength to support its credit profile for the foreseeable future,” states the study.

但这并非是穆迪所预测的最可能出现的局面。报告指出，“在可预见的未来，我们预计美国基本的经济实力可以支撑其信用评级。”

The big threat, says Carlson, is a major, structural downshift that hobbles future growth. And that could happen if President Trump actually delivers on the protectionist agenda he championed as a candidate. But barring an historic reversal in U.S. economic policy, the credit outlook is surprisingly positive. “In the report, we wanted to express a balanced view. We don’t want readers to forget the significant strengths that the U.S. has, and that other highly-rated countries don’t have,” says Carlson.

卡尔森指出，巨大的威胁来自于主要的结构性下滑，它将阻碍未来经济增长。如果特朗普总统最终实施了他在竞选时所提出的保护主义议程，那么上述威胁便可能会成为现实。然而，除非美国经济政策出现历史性反转，美国的信用状况将出人意料的强劲。卡尔森说：“在报告中，我们希望表达一个较为平衡的观点。我们不希望读者忽略美国所拥有的异常强大的实力，而其他评级较高的国家并不具备这样的实力。”

Still, America’s indebtedness is growing at a rapid pace, making the outlook unusually fragile. Remaining an economic juggernaut is now essential to averting a credit crunch, a situation we’ve never faced before.

然而，美国的债务水平正在快速增长，也让上述前景显得异常脆弱。如今，美国作为经济巨头的地位对于避免这一前所未有的信贷格局异常重要。